Dave Hoffman (Temple) has an interesting post at Concurring Opinions that considers whether ELS and sabremetrics are destined to suffer from similar futures. Dave worries that: "sabermetricians are devoting oodles of time to ever-more-complex formulae which add only a small amount of predictive power, but which make the discipline more remote from lay understanding, and thus less practically useful. Basically: the jargonification of a field." Although I hope Dave's worry is misplaced I understand his point. That said, perhaps awareness of a challenge ex ante can help reduce the probability of it presenting.