Today's WSJ contributes reports on a recent paper (here) that seeks to contribute to a long-standing debate surrounding the proverbial "hot hand" fallacy. In their paper, Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers, Joshua Miller (Bocconi Univ.) and Adam Sanjurjo (Univ. de Alicante) suggest that a form of selection bias contributes to an underestimation of the true probability of an outcome when conditioned on a prior (and similar) outcome. Not sure if the paper works, but an intriguing potential wrinkle nonetheless.
UPDATE: More discussion (here).