Sentencing Studies and Quasi-Natural Experiments

Today's New York Times reports that one of California's responses to its crushing fiscal mess is to implement a new (and much more aggressive) early release program for non-violent prisoners who are unlikely to recidivate. As Laura Appleman notes over at The Faculty Lounge, California's new early release program is being closely watched by other cash-strapped states also looking to reduce spending. Assuming that at least some states do not experiment with dramatic changes to early release programs, however, California's program might generate helpful data for those seeking to test the efficacy of its new policy.